Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 25 ¾ cents higher ($7.29 ½), Dec 26 ¼ cents higher ($7.39 ¼) & March 26 ½ cents higher ($7.47)

Sept KC Wheat closed 30 ¼ cents higher ($7.03 ½), Dec 30 ½ cents higher ($7.14 ¾) & March 30 ¾ cents higher ($7.22 ¼)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 18 cents higher ($9.22 ¾), Dec 20 ¼ cents higher ($9.11 ¼) & March 21 ½ cents higher ($8.97 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 387.7 K T. vs. 325-515 K T. expected

Spring Wheat Condition & Progress – 10% GE (+1%) vs. 8% expected vs. 73% year ago – 64% P-VP (-2%) vs. 5% year ago – Harvested – 17% vs. 11% expected vs. 8% 5-year average

Wheat prices were steady to start Sunday in both Chgo and KC. These steady opening prices were the lows of the day as prices firmed through Sunday night and kept on going during the Monday day session. We’re seeing an influx of world business and this is prompting higher World prices. Russia saw another downgrade to their crop; Sovecon is suggesting a crop size of 76.4 M T. This compares to the USDA’s July estimate of  85.0 M T. Over the weekend Egypt held an optional origin tender. They wound up buying only 60 K T. of Romanian wheat paying $293.74. I think they suffered a bit of sticker shock as this is $28 greater vs. what they bought in mid-July and $14 greater vs. what they paid last week. If I had to guess there is a bit of mentality developing that if you don’t buy it today it will be higher tomorrow.

I see both Chgo and KC wheat markets moving into the topping formations that were made in late April, early May. It’s hard to imagine prices will fly through this resistance area without some sort of backing and filling. Sept Chgo wheat has some interim resistance within this formation in the mid-low $7.40’s. After that it’s the high close, $7.62 ¼. Similar numbers for the Sept KC contract are $7.15 followed by $7.40.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/03

Sept Chgo Wheat: $7.20 – $7.45

Sept KC Wheat: $6.92 – $7.25

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