Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 26 cents lower ($7.34 ½), Dec 26 ½ cents lower ($7.48 ½) & March 24 ¾ cents lower ($7.61 ¼)

Sept KC Wheat closed 19 ¾ cents lower ($7.16 ¾), Dec 20 cents lower ($7.29 ¼) & March 19 ¾ cents lower ($7.38)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 21 cents lower ($9.21), Dec 19 ½ cents lower ($9.07 ½) & March 18 ½ cents lower ($8.97 ¾)

1, 2, 3 take profits. I did not see anyone item to prompt today’s wave of profit taking other than the stronger US dollar. Early ideas on the Algerian tender are that they may have taken up to 250 K T. of wheat ranging $28.0 to $30.0 higher vs. their tender back on August 4th. After today’s close Egypt announced an optional origin overnight tender. AS far as I’m concerned today’s price performance is signaling we are going to move into a correction/consolidation phase that may last one week or longer. I can’t imagine global supply getting much lower given what the USDA gave us to work with last Thursday. Now comes the demand side of the equation. I’m told forward coverage is not very good and many commercials are caught with lower priced contracts that need to be filled.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/18

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.42 – $7.67

Dec KC Wheat: $7.24 – $7.47

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.