Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 9 ¾ cents lower ($7.08 ¾), Dec 9 cents lower ($7.23 ½) & March 8 ½ cents lower ($7.36 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 8 cents lower ($7.04 ¼), Dec 11 ½ cents lower ($7.12 ½) & March 11 ¼ cents lower ($7.21 ½)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 16 ¼ cents lower ($9.20), Dec 8 cents lower ($9.09 ¾) & March 5 ½ cents lower ($8.97 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 316.8 K T. vs. 400-675 K T. expected

Egypt buys 180 K T. wheat – 120 K T. Romanian, 60 K T. Ukraine – paid $9 – $12 lower vs. August 18th purchase

Spring Wheat Crop ProgressHarvested – 88% vs. 71% 5-year ave

Flat price wheat tries to go it alone on Monday only to succumb to the bearishness elsewhere in the Ag complex. Egypt comes for wheat paying $9.00-$12.d00 higher vs. wheat they paid two weeks ago. What is most noticeable are the small quantities they are booking. This is all about the unwillingness to pay up quantity. In recent weeks I’ve seen a lot of buying like this. Countries that normally buy 300 K-500 K T. at a tender are now opting for half of those amounts.  I’m not sure what they are thinking as I don’t see supply increasing. In the end this type of buying will keep the wheat market alive but will work to stall rallies.

After today’s price action the flat price appears vulnerable to further suspected support testing. Over the past week I’ve been with the idea that Dec Chgo wheat should be able to experience decent technical support from $7.20 down to $7.10 while Dec KC should be able to realize support below the $7.00 level. We flirted the aforementioned support levels mid last week and now it looks like we are going to do it again.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/31

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.14 – $7.32

Dec KC Wheat: $7.04 – $7.23

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.