Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 10 ½ cents lower ($6.98 ¼), Dec 10 ¼ cents lower ($7.09 ½) & March 9 ¾ cents lower ($7.20 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 12 ¾ cents lower ($6.97), Dec 12 ¾ cents lower ($7.04 ¾) & March 12 ¾ cents lower ($7.13 ¾)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.97), Dec 13 ¾ cents lower ($8.94 ½) & March 14 cents lower ($8.82 ½)

Overnight Egypt buys 300 K T. wheat – 240 K T. Ukraine, 60 K T. Russian – paid $5.00-$8.00 higher vs. August 30 purchases – this is Egypt’s largest overnight wheat purchase dating back to this past April while paying the highest prices to date

Flat price wheat stays under recent pressure from higher than expected old crop Canadian wheat stocks (5.7 M T. vs. 4.8 M expected vs. 5.5 M year ago) and continued strength in the US Dollar. It makes me wonder if some of the selling is in response to the fact that there will be no US update for US wheat production on Friday. The USDA will not update US wheat production until the end of the month on their Small Grains Report. The USDA will update US demand data but then again I’m not looking for much change in this regard. The USDA will update Global production (sans US) but here also I’m not expecting much change.

Recent price action suggests US wheat futures are not done probing suspected support levels. I would like to think that from a time frame there is not much left. Dec Chgo wheat still has its 50% retracement level to deal with at $7.02. I will admit that Dec KC wheat below its recent low of $6.97 could attract additional selling.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/09

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.02 – $7.25

Dec KC Wheat: $6.97 (?) – $7.20

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.