Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 8 cents lower ($7.00 ¾), March 8 ¼ cents lower ($7.11 ½) & May 7 ¾ cents lower ($7.15)

December KC Wheat closed 13 cents lower ($7.00), March 12 ¾ cents lower ($7.09) & May 12 ¼ cents lower ($7.14 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 6 ½ cents lower ($8.94), March 6 ¾ cents lower ($8.82) & May 6 cents lower ($8.70 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 563.3 K T. vs. 350-600 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 21% vs. 22% expected vs. 18% 5-year ave – Emerged – 3% vs. 2% 5-year ave

Flat price wheat moves into a minor correction phase following last week’s rally to interim resistance. Weekly wheat export inspections were solid based on expectations. The strength in the US dollar, weakness elsewhere within the Ag complex and technical considerations were most responsible for today’s sell-off. Not only did we see the flat price correct but we also saw inter-market wheat spreads correct. Last week KC was your upside leader and today it saw the biggest correction.

I don’t think the current correction phase will be as deep as we saw two weeks ago. At the end of the month the USDA will update spring wheat (as well as all small grains) production. If you recall the August wheat production update saw the winter wheat production number take the biggest hit as spring wheat saw only minor downside adjustments. Many feel the Sept 30th update will see spring wheat show more of a dramatic downside adjustment. With that said I would be surprised to see further corrections much more than 10 cents vs. what we saw today.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/21

Dec Chgo Wheat: $6.90 – $7.10

Dec KC Wheat: $6.90 – $7.10

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