Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 12 cents higher ($7.17 ¾), March 12 ½ cents higher ($7.28 ½) & May 12 ¾ cents higher ($7.32)

December KC Wheat closed 14 cents higher ($7.20), March 13 ¾ cents higher ($7.28 ½) & May 13 ¾ cents higher ($7.33 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 8 cents higher ($9.11 ½), March 7 ½ cents higher ($8.98 ¼) & May 7 ¼ cents higher ($8.85 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 355.9 K T. old crop vs. 250-600 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Strong global interest continues to support US wheat futures despite the US not being that involved. Weekly export sales at just 360 K T. and weekly cumulative sales lagging last year’s pace by nearly 1.0 M T. is evidence of that. Last week Pakistan conducted a tender for 500 K T. of wheat; they bought 560 K T. Yesterday they announced another tender for 650 K T (results will be known next week). Algeria recent purchased 330-350 K T. of durum. Adding to all of this there is some rumor mongering that Russia may set some export limits (in addition to their export duties) come January 1st.

Interior cash wheat prices (basis) for standard protein don’t do much. The Gulf for SRW is jumping a bit. The track basis for HRW down to the Gulf is noticeably stronger. I’m not sure if it just slow farmer movement or is there actually some market making interest showing up.

The technical look at the daily wheat charts are close to suggesting the beginning of a new leg higher. Dec Chgo wheat has closed above last week’s high and Dec KC wheat is not far from it; just a few cents. I’ve been using these closes as my cue for a new leg higher. It will be interesting to see if conclusive signals of this happening ahead of next Thursday’s wheat production and acreage update.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/24

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.10 – $7.29

Dec KC Wheat: $7.10 – $7.30

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