Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($7.22 ¼), March 1 cent lower ($7.33 ¾) & May ¼ cent lower ($7.37 ¾)

December KC Wheat closed 1 cent higher ($7.20 ¾), March ¾ cent higher ($7.28 ½) & May ½ cent higher ($7.32 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 5 ½ cents higher ($9.21 ½), March 4 ½ cents higher ($9.07 ¼) & May 3 ¼ cents higher ($8.93)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 286.0 K T. vs. 400-625 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 34% vs. 34% expected vs. 32% 5-year ave – Emerged – 9% vs. 8% 5-year ave

Flat price Chgo and KC wheat consolidate at its recent upper end while Mpls grinds higher. The global wheat trade continues with Algeria and Ethiopia tendering. Weekly export inspections were such suggesting US origin still hasn’t come in to its own. On Thursday the USDA will update US wheat production as well as harvested acres. All eyes will be on the spring wheat and durum numbers. The average trade guess has spring production declining by 16 M bu. and durum declining by 1 M bu. In addition to the wheat figures the USDA will also update oats and barley production. Both of these products are grown in areas that got hit hard by heat and drought this summer. Just the other day oats came within 10 cents of its all time high.

Interior cash wheat markets are relatively quiet. The export markets are steady after seeing some noticeable firming last week. Chgo intra-market spreads are soft while KC and Mpls intra-market spreads are firm. Last Friday we saw KC correct lower vs. Chgo. I think that’s all it was, just a correction.

Recent flat price strength is sitting on the edge of confirming a new leg higher. I have to think Thursday’s report will go far in determining whether or not we have a new leg higher coming. I’m not good at chasing rallies but if I can get a decent correction to show up on the shorter term inter-day charts I will look for a buying opportunity.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/28

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.10 – $7.33

Dec KC Wheat: $7.10 – $7.30

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.