Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($7.41 ¼), March 4 ¼ cents lower ($7.54 ¾) & May 3 ½ cents lower ($7.58 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($7.41 ¼), March 3 ¼ cents lower ($7.49 ½) & May 3 ¼ cents lower ($7.52 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.42 ¼), March 3 ½ cents higher ($9.31 ¼) & May 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.16 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 333.2 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly export sales were nothing special. The lack of better export business has Chgo and KC continuing with its recent consolidation, retracement phase despite the stronger wheat markets overseas. Mpls wheat manages to eke out small gains. I’m guessing we are going to see further drawdowns on Canadian crops. The eventuality should be better export business for the US but it will probably come as a last resort. US wheat prices with freight included continue to be non-competitive.

As I mentioned yesterday Chgo and KC wheat charts are advertising down flags. This type of price formation is not bearish but rather the pause that refreshes. Support starts in the mid-low $7.30’s for both nearby Chgo and KC contracts. The best looking support is closer to the $7.25 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/08

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.33 – $7.56

Dec KC Wheat: $7.33 – $7.55

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