Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($7.34), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($7.47 ¼) & May 1 ½ cents higher ($7.51 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($7.39 ¾), March 5 cents higher ($7.47 ¾) & May 4 ¾ cents higher ($7.51 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($9.25 ½), March 4 ¾ cents higher ($9.15 ¾) & May 5 ¼ cents higher ($9.03 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 435.1 K T. vs. 300-625 K T. expected

Egypt announced an overnight tender yesterday afternoon then cancelled it this morning citing offered prices to high vs. the current direction of the international market

Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 60% vs. 61% expected vs. 60% 5-year ave – Emerged – 31% vs. 35% 5-year ave

The USDA lowers US carryout by 35 M bu. which was mostly expected. The bigger surprise was the World wheat carryout coming down as much as it did. The trade was expecting to see a drop of 2.4 M T. not a drop of 6.04 M T.

Given what the USDA had to say about the World wheat situation the global trade/price should stay strong. I think the only reason why US wheat futures could not do a better job of holding its initial rally was the spillover bearishness from the corn and soybean price action. The intra-day lows we saw today represent good technical support. As far as I’m concerned the recent downflagging action should eventually act as a springboard to higher prices.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/13

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.26 – $7.51

Dec KC Wheat: $7.32 – $7.55

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.