Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 15 ¼ cents lower ($7.18 ¾), March 15 ½ cents lower ($7.31 ¾) & May 14 ¾ cents lower ($7.36 ¾)

December KC Wheat closed 18 cents lower ($7.21 ¾), March 17 ¾ cents lower ($7.30) & May 17 ½ cents lower ($7.33 ¾)

December Mpls Wheat closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($9.48 ¾), March 5 ¾ cents lower ($9.38) & May 5 ¼ cents lower ($9.23 ¾)

It is suggested Russia has combined 95% of its wheat crop to the tune of 76.4 M T. The USDA has them pegged for only 72.5 M T. This and the technical failure of the market to respond to favorable news (much lower than expected world projected carryout yesterday) had wheat futures getting slammed today. Egypt balking at yesterday’s tender citing prices being too high did not help. That’s one of the functions of high prices; kill demand. Still I think the US supply-demand and the World supply-demand scenarios remain tight enough that the wheat market is not going to go away quietly.

As much as I would like to think that both Chgo and KC wheat futures are in technical support areas the price action leaves a lot to be desired. I would be very surprised to see the $7.10 levels violated (both Dec Chgo and KC) for any length of time. As of this writing the US dollar is acting like it has gone high enough. Any further downside follow through tomorrow I feel should be supportive to our wheat futures as well as th rest of the grain complex (at least for the short term).

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/14

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.10 – $7.30

Dec KC Wheat: $7.15 – $7.36

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.