Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 3 ½ cents higher ($7.59 ½), March 4 ¼ cents higher ($7.71 ¾) & May 4 ¾ cents higher ($7.74 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($7.77 ¾), March 4 cents higher ($7.80 ½) & May 4 ½ cents higher ($7.79 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 14 cents higher ($10.27), March 14 ½ cents higher ($10.03) & May 13 cents higher ($9.75 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 140.4 K T. vs. 150-450 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Condition & Progress – 46% GE vs. 54% expected vs. 41% year ago – Planted – 80% vs. 81% expected vs. 80% ave – Emerged – 55% vs. 59% ave

Mpls wheat continues to surge higher while KC and Chgo, albeit higher, were more of a consolidating type of trade. World wheat business continues to be strong but once again not much is coming to the US as evidenced by the paltry weekly export inspections. Chgo and KC were nowhere near as strong as the Mpls market as it seemed inter-market spread re-alignment dominated the day’s trade. Steady to easier corn prices takes some of the edge off of feed wheat. China auctions off 1.0 M T. of wheat; nearly 90% was taken.

Interior cash wheat markets remain relatively quiet. The rail basis for HRW down the Gulf continues to show a firm bias and now the Gulf basis for SRW is showing a spark. Despite all this both Chgo and KC wheat spreads ran a bit easier. I can understand the KC spreads correcting a bit given Friday’s sharp tightening stemming from the 1165 delivery receipts being cancelled. I have to think the bearish spread action in Chgo is a direct result of a lack of business.

Granted the Chgoand KC markets are not as strong as Mpls bit there is nothing bearish about their respective price action. Hard wheat should continue to gain on soft heat whether it be Mpls vs. Chgo or KC vs. Chgo. Mpls should gain on KC. Mpls intra-market spreads should stay firm as should KC intra-market spreads.

 Daily Support & Resistance – 10/26

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.50 – $7.75

Dec KC Wheat: $7.64 – ???

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