May Chgo Wheat closed 8 ½ cents lower ($4.35 ¾), July 6 ½ cents lower ($4.41 ¾) & Dec 5 ¾ cents lower ($4.65 ¼)
May KC Wheat closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.11 ¾), July 7 ½ cents lower ($4.18 ¼) & Dec 7 cents lower ($4.49)
May Mpls Wheat closed 14 ¾ cents lower ($5.08 ½), July 11 cents lower ($5.18 ½), & Dec 8 ¼ cents lower ($5.43 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 811.1 K T. vs. 350-600 K T. expected – cumulative 20.746 M T. – USDA target – 25.72 M T.
US Winter Wheat Ratings & Progress – 62% GE vs. 60% expected vs. 31% year ago – Headed – 9% vs. 18% 5-year average
US Spring Wheat Planting Progress – 5% vs. 7% expected vs. 22% 5-year average
US wheat prices continue to fall in response to lower World prices elsewhere. For the past number of months Black Sea prices have set the bar and that continues. Wheat crop conditions, worldwide, appear to be great shape. Since US origin is a secondary supplier it has to follow the cue set by the rest of the World. Weekly wheat export inspections were a stout looking number vs. expectations but it was hardly given a glance. New contract lows and closes in the KC and Mpls markets do not give any warm & fuzzies to those trying to think prices have gone too low. Chgo prices appear headed to their March lows.
Interior cash wheat markets are quiet. Like the rest of the Ag complex wheat producers are not interested in doing any selling at current levels. Upfront wheat spreads took it on the chin Monday in response to option expiration at the end of the week as well as liquidation ahead of first notice day on the 30th. So here you have it; flat price ugly as are the spreads.
Needless to say most of the wheat charts are rather ugly looking. Chgo has one interim support level left, the March lows, while KC & Mpls are free-falling. It’s only natural that the “hard” variety is the leader as that is the lion’s share of US wheat. It would be easy to say prices are overdone to the downside but from a technical perspective not really. Last week when we thought prices were deserving of a bounce it was the “dead cat” variety; it only lasted one day and we are below those levels now. Eventually the trade will get too short and have to cover but as of this writing I don’t see anything fundamentally or technically to prompt this.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/23
July Chgo Wheat: $4.36 – $4.50
July KC Wheat: $4.14 (?) – $4.27
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