December Chgo Wheat closed 7 ½ cents higher ($7.59 ¾), March 7 ¾ cents higher ($7.73) & May 7 ¾ cents higher ($7.76 ½)
December KC Wheat closed 5 ½ cents higher ($7.82 ¾), March 5 ½ cents higher ($7.85 ¾) & May 5 ¼ cents higher ($7.85 ½)
December Mpls Wheat closed ½ cent higher ($10.22), March 3 ¼ cents higher ($10.05 ½) & May 5 ¾ cents higher ($9.80 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Egypt bites the bullet and buys 360 K T. of wheat; 180 K T. Russian, 120 K T. Ukraine & 60 K T. Romanian – they paid an average of 327.98 FOB & 359.94 w/ freight – On October 12th they passed citing prices too high – their last successful tender was on Oct 6th where they paid 320.51 FOB & 351.61 w/ freight
World wheat prices continue to stay strong. Despite this US futures prices are advertising a correction phase. Yes, I know Chgo finished higher but all it did was get back what it lost yesterday. Chgo gaining on KC suggests correction. Bull spreads in Mpls correcting suggests correction. The daily price configuration in Chgo is downflagging further suggesting correction. Given the run higher over the past two weeks there is room for downside correction whether it be Mpls, KC or Chgo. Once again the ongoing Russian harvest suggests the USDA has understated their crop size by 5.0 M T. I have to think this or part of this will show up on the November 9th Supply-Demand report.
Interior cash wheat prices continue to show a steady to firm bias for HRW. Interior basis levels for SRW are not showing any changes. Export basis levels for both varieties show a firm tone. Does the firm export basis suggest the US will finally see some better export business? Tomorrow’s weekly export sales will dictate whether or not my idea of a correction phase continues or we resume going higher.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/28
Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.50 – $7.70 (?)
Dec KC Wheat: $7.70 – $7.90 (?)
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