Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($7.68), March 1 ½ cents higher ($7.81 ¼) & May 2 cents higher ($7.85 ¾)

December KC Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($7.80 ¾), March 2 ½ cents higher ($7.85) & May 2 ½ cents higher ($7.86 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed ¾ of a cent lower ($10.08 ¾), March 1 ½ cents higher ($9.96 ¾) & May 2 ¼ cents higher ($9.77 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 231.8 K T. vs. 150-400 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Condition & Progress – 45% GE (unch) vs. 46% expected vs. 45% year ago – Planted – 91% vs. 93% expected vs. 91% ave – Emerged – 74% vs. 77% ave

Last week’s profit taking appears to have run its course at least for now. Tomorrow the USDA will update supply-demand for both the US and the world. Average trade guesses for these two reports are suggesting very little/minor changes. If there is a wild card it may be the Russian production figure. The US on recent reports has suggested their crop size is 72.5 M T. vs. outside reports suggesting close to 77.0-78.0 M T. If the US wheat market is to go higher we will need to see an improvement in US exports as the only business we have been seeing is from normal customers/captive audiences. If we do see an uptick in business I believe it will benefit the HRW market as HRS is just too costly and the SRW market has some pretty stiff competition from Australia and France. If you are thinking the recent break in the Mpls market has been too severe I don’t think so. The Mpls market is not known for its liquidity and that’s why we are seeing the current skid in prices. The tightness in the US/Canadian HRS market has not gone away. If the coming months are going to be anything like late 2007, early 2008, “we haven’t seen anything yet”.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/09

Dec Chgo Wheat: $7.58 – $7.85

Dec KC Wheat: $7.70 – $7.98

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.