Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 28 cents higher ($8.06 ½), March 24 ½ cents higher ($8.15) & May 23 ¼ cents higher ($8.19 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 24 ¼ cents higher ($8.38 ½), March 23 cents higher ($8.42 ¼) & May 22 ¼ cents higher ($8.41 ¾)

December Mpls Wheat closed 24 cents higher ($10.61), March 22 ½ cents higher ($10.42 ¼) & May 18 ¼ cents higher ($10.27 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 79.9 K T. old crop vs. 250-600 K T. expected – 26.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Strong overseas wheat markets from renewed buying (Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Jordan) influences US prices higher. Concerns have shifted back to Australian wheat quality vs. Quantity. Turkey talks about examining other avenues of origination from fears that Russian prices are going to get just too high. Weekly wheat export sales were the lowest of the marketing season but that fell on deaf ears. A strong overseas market continues to suggest eventual US interest.

Cash prices for US wheat whether it be for domestic use or for export remain quiet. Wheat spreads for all three varieties were strong today with the surge of buying.

If you believe March Chgo wheat made an interim top earlier this week then you will think $8.20-$8.30 begins resistance. I do. Unfortunately there is resistance all the way up to the $8.50 level. You’ve got to factor in the increased volatility. That’s why I was waiting for $7.80 to $7.75. March KC wheat shows resistance beginning at the $8.50 to $860 level with better up towards $8.75 to $8.80. As much as I think US wheat futures have tremendous potential for higher prices I’m just not good at chasing 40-50 cent rallies.

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/03

March Chgo Wheat: $8.05 – $8.30

March KC Wheat: $8.34 – $8.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.