Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 11 cents lower ($7.46 ¾), May 11 ¼ cents lower ($7.49) & July 12 ¾ cents lower ($7.42 ½)

March KC Wheat closed 18 ¼ cents lower ($7.59 ¾), May 16 ¾ cents lower ($7.62 ¼) & July 14 ¼ cents lower ($7.64 ¾)

March Mpls Wheat closed 25 cents lower ($8.95 ½), May 24 cents lower ($8.94 ¼) & July 22 cents lower ($8.92 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 264.5 K T. old crop vs. 150-400 K T. expected – no new crop vs.0-50 K T.  expected

US wheat exports continue to miss out on most of the global business. Yesterday’s USDA report suggesting a hike in both the US and world carryout sways we’ve got plenty of wheat around to handle the last half of the marketing year. It’s only January so its tough to try and make a market out of the wintering conditions. The higher than expected US winter wheat acres says we can withstand the normal condition threats for now.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think there is a lot left on the downside vs. what we saw last week but that still doesn’t make the market bullish. It is my idea that prices should be able to realize support in the next 20 cents or so and then the wheat market will move into a sideways mode. My best approach here is to fade short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/14

March Chgo: $7.35 – $7.55

March KC: $7.50 (?) – $7.68

The risk of trading futures and options can be be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.