March Chgo Wheat closed 20 ½ cents higher ($8.00 ½), May 19 ¼ cents higher ($8.04) & July 18 cents higher ($7.92 ¼)
March KC Wheat closed 24 ¾ cents higher ($8.18), May 24 ¼ cents higher ($8.20 ½) & July 21 ½ cents higher ($8.20)
March Mpls Wheat closed 12 ½ cents higher ($9.48 ½), May 12 ½ cents higher ($9.44) & July 12 cents higher ($9.36)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 400.9 K T. vs. 250-450 K T. expected
Strength in the US wheat futures was 90% the Russia/Ukraine issue. The remaining 10% was the wintering condition of the US Southern Plains HRW crop (dryness) and decent looking weekly export inspections. The intra-day price action had something for everyone; strength early Sunday night, weakness going into the day session and then finishing with a flourish as it makes new highs for the day.
Interior basis levels for standard protein wheat reman quiet. Despite an almost strong looking weekly export inspection the HRW rail basis to the Gulf eases a bit from recent strength. Not much happens with the gulf basis for SRW. Today’s flat price buying buoyed the bull spreads for both Chgo and KC.
Geopolitical issues (Russia vs. Ukraine) will continue to keep this market on edge unless there is some sort of an announcement involving de-escalation. Dry conditions in the US HRW areas will work to provide underlying support when the market goes into a deep correction. It does appear that the US is picking up some additional business but still not enough to be a major market force. Bottomline – what’s going to happen between Russia and Ukraine?
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/25
March Chgo: $7.88 – $8.12
March KC: $8.05 – $8.30
The risk of trading futures and options can be be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.