Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 23 cents lower ($7.95), May 21 ½ cents lower ($8.00 ¾) & July 17 cents lower ($7.90 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 18 ¾ cents lower ($8.15 ¾), May 18 cents lower ($8.18 ¾) & July 16 cents lower ($8.17 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 31 cents lower ($9.16 ¼), May 30 ¼ cents lower ($9.13 ¾) & July 28 ¼ cents low ($9.10 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

If you’re looking for new news in the wheat market to prompt today’s downside correction keep looking as I did not see any. I think today was all about the market being primed for a technical correction given the recent rally. Nobody that I know knows how this Russian/Ukraine situation is going to flop. I would like to think it is all saber rattling but we still have to take into account that both of these countries are major exporters of wheat. If the Black Sea exports shut down due to an escalated situation it would be price friendly for the remaining world’s exporters.

US cash wheat markets remain quiet for both domestic and export needs. Spreads for all of the varieties involved took a hit (“hards” the least) reflective of the flat price profit taking.

If we get no new news from the Russian/Ukraine front wheat prices will move into a consolidation mode. If the liquidation continues March Chgo wheat should be able to realize support down towards the $7.70 level. March KC wheat shows noticeable technical support down towards the $7.90 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/27

March Chgo: $7.85 – $8.15

March KC: $8.00 – $8.32

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