Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 11 cents lower ($7.63 ¾), Dec 10 ½ cents lower ($7.83 ½) & March 10 cents lower ($8.02 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 6 ¾ cents lower ($8.35 ½), Dec 6 ½ cents lower ($8.43 ¾) & March 6 ½ cents lower ($8.50)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($8.75 ¼), Dec 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.89) & March 3 ½ cents higher ($9.03)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price Chgo wheat challenges my suspected support at $7.50 and manages to hold. The hard varieties did pump out new lows for the current break but not much follow through was seen. It seems that the global export trade has picked up in recent days. Last week it was Pakistan with two different tenders and this week brings us Algeria with a significant amount of business. There also smaller amounts of business being done that suggests the lower prices are indeed creating new interest. Unfortunately I’m not seeing greater involvement for US origin. We are still adding additional amounts of carry to the price structure in all three varieties and that’s not upfront friendly.

As in the rest of the Ag complex I’d like to lean towards some brief consolidation here. Looking ahead to the USDA production/Supply-Demand report I have a hard time thinking anything friendly is going to come out of it as far as the wheat market is concerned. We have what appears to be a solid spring wheat which should offset the disappointing HRW crop. The world numbers should feature a better North American crop, a declining European crop but a larger Russian crop. World supplies should increase in my opinion.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/04

Sept Chgo: $7.50 – $7.85

Sept KC: $8.20 – $8.58

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