Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 4 cents higher ($7.79 ¾), Dec 4 cents higher ($7.99 ¼) & March 3 ¼ cents higher ($8.17 ¼)

Sept KC Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($8.47 ¾), Dec 1 cent lower ($8.55) & March 1 ½ cents lower ($8.61)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($8.80 ¾), Dec 5 ¾ cents lower ($8.94 ¾) & March 6 ¼ cents lower ($9.07 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 603.5 K T. vs. 250-550 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressHarvested – 86% vs. 89% expected vs. 91% 5-year ave

Weekly Spring Wheat Condition & Progress – 64% GE (-6%) vs. 70% expected vs. 11% year ago – Harvested – 9% vs. 7% expected vs. 19% 5-year ave

US wheat futures gave us a mixed trade on Monday as Chgo finished minorly higher, KC almost fractionally lower and Mpls minorly lower. The mixed trade was not only among the different varieties but also within the varieties. Chgo Sept wheat traded from roughly 18 cents higher to 15 cents lower and finished just above the half-way point. The KC trade wasn’t much different as it traded from roughly from 14 cents higher to 18 cents lower finally finishing just above the half way point of the day’s range. The downside influences were more exports leaving Ukraine, reports of a 95.0 M T. Russian wheat crop and what appears to be a good looking US Spring wheat crop. Upside influences were India talking about relaxing its import rules, a smaller EU crop, a better than expected weekly export inspection and technical considerations (bottoming formations along with seasonal ideas).

Sept Chgo wheat is trying to realize support vs. the $7.50 level just like Sept KC wheat is trying to realize support against the $8.10 level. The world data on Friday’s USDA report should hold sway over the domestic data. Between now and Friday we shouldn’t be any worse that sideways similar to what we’ve been seeing. If I’m wrong its because we’ll see some short covering and that will create an upside bias.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/09

Sept Chgo: $7.65 – $8.15

Sept KC: $8.35 – $8.85

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this he technical is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.