Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 18 ¼ cents higher ($7.99 ¾), Dec 17 cents higher ($8.16 ¼) & March 16 ¼ cents higher ($8.32 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 21 cents higher ($8.72 ¾), Dec 18 ½ cents higher ($8.76 ¾) & March 18 ½ cents lower ($8.82 ¼)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 13 ½ cents higher ($9.06 ¼), Dec 12 ¾ cents higher ($9.19 ¼) & March 13 cents higher ($9.31 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

A noticeably weaker US Dollar was the primary supporting issue to the US wheat futures markets today. I also think we saw some short covering ahead of the USDA data on Friday. Both the large spec and the managed funds are net short Chicago futures. These two classes are split in the KC market; the large spec is short and the managed funds are long. The managed funds are a minor short in Mpls.

As we move forward it will be up to the USDA on Friday that will give us our next direction here. It is my thought the directional bias will be a wide sideways mode. I realize that US export business is less than desired. I also realize that Ukraine grew more spring wheat this year and Russia has nothing less than a monster crop. I realize that the EU has a smaller wheat crop but it’s my thought that between Ukraine and Russia this is more than offset. I’m told the seasonal bias for wheat is higher. I’m not sure what’s out there that will prompt this.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/11

Sept Chgo: $7.80 – $8.20

Sept KC: $8.50 – $8.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this he technical is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.