Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($8.06), Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($8.22 ½) & March 5 ¾ cents lower ($8.35 ½)

Sept KC Wheat closed unchanged ($8.89 ¼), Dec ½ cent higher ($8.92 ½) & March 1 ¼ cents lower ($8.96)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.19 ½), Dec 3 cents lower ($9.32) & March 4 cents lower ($9.43 ½)

USDA Wheat US – left carryin unchanged, lowered harvested acres 95 K (durum), increased yield 0.2 bpa, increased production 2 million bu., increased domestic usage 6 M bu., increased exports 25 M bu., lowered carryout 29 M bu., STU 31.39% vs. 33.42% last month vs. 34.26% year agoUSDA Wheat World – lowered the carryin 3.75 M T. (adj. 2020/21 carryout down 1.36 M T. & under stated last year’s usage 2.65 M T.), increased production 7.96 M T. (lowered Argentina 500 K T., increased Australia 3.0 M T., increased Canada 1.0 M T., lowered EU 2.0 M T., increased Russia 6.5 M T., increased China 3.0 M T., lowered India 3.0 M T.), increased usage 4.38 M T., lowered carryout 180 K T.

What makes the USDA think US wheat exports are going to increase? The USDA raised Russian production to 88.0 M T. but most feel their crop size is somewhere between 90.0-95.0 M T. I think that is what made the lows after the numbers were released while the rebounding corn & soybean markets allowed wheat futures to rally off of those lows. I still think wheat is going to get the short end of the stick when it comes to inter-market spreads. Today’s price action is suggesting to me US wheat futures are no better than a trading range affair. Fading intra-day and inter-day technical extremes appears to be the best approach here.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/15

Sept Chgo: $7.90 – $8.30

Sept KC: $8.72 – $9.15

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.