Sept Chgo Wheat closed 32 ½ cents higher ($5.42 ¾), Dec 32 ½ cents higher ($5.61 ¾) & March 30 ¼ cents higher ($5.76 ¾)
Sept KC Wheat closed 31 cents higher ($5.40 ¾), Dec 30 ¾ cents higher ($5.66 ¼) & March 29 cents higher ($5.83)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Zoom, Zoom, Zoom!!! It’s been quite some time since we saw US wheat futures trade at limit up but we did on Wednesday. Higher European prices coupled with the Wheat Quality Council finding spring wheat yields less than expected say it all. Although prices did not finish at limit what back off we saw late in the session was minimal. It seems as if every 2nd or 3rd day we hear of further downgrades to the EU crop size. The US trade will continue to take their cue from the European price action as well as any further findings from the Wheat Quality Council tour.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. The SRW market at the Gulf is quiet/unchanged. The HRW rail market to the Gulf continues to slide. Bull spreads were working at all three US exchanges. I can’t imagine there are any remaining spec shorts in the Chgo market. It’s hard to fathom but yes there are new longs coming into the market.
European prices are at levels not seen for 3 years. US prices are nowhere near the highs we saw in early June. KC prices are coming into the low side of significant looking congestive resistance. Chgo prices are already chewing their significant looking resistance. According to the standard 14-day RSI prices are nowhere near overbought. After Wednesday’s performance there is room for correction without putting a dent in the recent trend. For the past two weeks our markets have been following the European market – I don’t see that changing anytime soon unless our export business noticeably picks up in short order.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/26
Sept Chgo Wheat: $5.32 – $5.54 (?)
Sept KC Wheat: $5.32 – $5.55 (?)
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