Sept Chgo Wheat closed 18 ¼ cents lower ($5.42 ¼), Dec 17 ¼ cents lower ($5.62 ½) & March 16 ¼ cents lower ($5.85 ¼)
Sept KC Wheat closed 17 ¾ cents lower ($5.47 ¼), Dec 17 ¼ cents lower ($5.74 ¾) & March 16 ¾ cents lower ($5.99)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 345.3 K T. vs. 350-500 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – Harvested – 97% vs. 98% 5-year average
Weekly Spring Wheat Progress – Harvested – 60% vs. 51% expected vs. 44% 5-year average
Last Friday US wheat prices rallied sharply on rumors that Russia may enact caps on wheat exports. Then the story was Russia would think about wheat export caps once exports hit 30 million T. All of this was denied by the Russian Ag ministry. Today’s story was Russian exporters may pick up the pace of exports just in case export caps are announced later in the marketing year. This story suggests to me that Russia could rather aggressive with their marketing over the next few months.
Advertised wheat basis levels just don’t change. This holds true for both domestic and export. Chgo spreads eased with the flat price while longer term still trying to suggest a basing action. the old crop/new crop spreads are volatile but they too are trying to hold on to Friday’s suggested interim buy signal. KC spreads are similar with the old crop/new crop spreads most volatile.
The flat price action continues to suggest fading short term inter-day extremes. If the flat price takes out last week’s lows another 15-20 cents lower can’t be ruled out. Once again – chasing extremes here just doesn’t work.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/21
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.55 ($5.49) – $5.71
Dec KC Wheat: $5.68 ($5.64) – $5.84
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.