Sept Chgo Wheat closed 10 ¼ cents lower ($4.93 ¾), Dec 9 ½ cents lower ($5.18 ¾) & March 9 cents lower ($5.37 ¾)
Sept KC Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($4.94 ¼), Dec 8 cents lower ($5.22 ¾) & March 7 ¾ cents lower ($5.42 ¾)
Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – Planted – 5% vs. 6% expected vs. 5% 5-year average
Weekly Spring Wheat Progress – Harvested – 93% vs. 94% expected vs. 85% 5-year average
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat
Overnight some weather models (not all) suggested better rain for the dry areas of Australia and Russia. It was lower production ideas that got the rally going on Monday so this forecast had the short term trader reversing his ideas today. Additionally; Managed money has been carrying a net long here so position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data was also featured. Minimal if any changes are expected for the US Supply-Demand as the USDA will not update domestic production until later in the month. Exports have been slow to materialize so no change is expected in this regard. If there is going to be any market moving data in this report it will come out of the World Supply-Demand data. Since the last USDA report we have seen some of the major exporting nations lowering their respective crop sizes so one would think we will see a lower World projected carryout. Just how much remains to be seen.
The advertised interior wheat basis still doesn’t change. The Gulf is not much different either. Wheat spreads widened back out with the flat price selling.
It’s coming down to the goings on in the World wheat markets. Egypt’s overnight tender could very telling based on offers vs. how much they are willing to pay. Last week they took the one lowball offer from Russia and didn’t touch the higher offers. For what it is worth the trade expects the US carryout to rise by 6 million bu. and the World carryout to decline by 1.38 M T.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/12
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.07 – $5.42
Dec KC Wheat: $5.11 – $5.45
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