Dec Chgo Wheat closed unchanged ($5.15 ¾), March 5 ½ cents higher ($5.21 ¼) & July 6 ½ cents higher ($5.33 ¾)
Dec KC Wheat closed 2 ½ cents lower ($4.84), March 6 ¼ cents higher ($5.06 ½) & July 8 ½ cents higher ($5.30)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 472.6 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Flat price wheat goes along for the ride higher prompted by the China/US tariff truce. I sincerely doubt China will be buying much US wheat, if any, given the recent adjustment to their production/stocks. US wheat, however, does have a bit of its own story. Australia’s wheat crop continues to decline. There are still questions around Russia’s ability to export at the pace they have been for the past number of months. US wheat export offers have been gaining some competitiveness in recent weeks. Like the rest of the Ag sector’s price action on Monday the flat price of wheat saw its highs early Sunday night, rejected fairly quickly and was never really challenged for the rest of the session.
Not much happens with the interior SRW cash markets. The export market, however, is trying to show some strength. Spreads showed a bearish bias on the day led by the nearby Dec contract. Are we going to see some deliveries? The interior HRW cash market continues to show a firm tone while its respective export market does not. 400 deliveries came roaring out over the weekend putting a bearish spin on spreads. For what it is worth the March/July KC spread is only 3 ½ cents off of its contract low.
Flat price wheat challenges interim resistance and gets turned back. Daily momentum indicators read clearly higher. For the US wheat markets to gain traction and continue to move higher we’re going to need more business. Its one thing to be competitive but it’s another to get the business.
Daily Support & Resistance for 12/04
Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.10 – $5.28
Mch KC Wheat: $4.95 – $5.15
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