Sept Soybeans closed 1 cent lower ($8.99 ¾), Nov 1 cent higher ($9.05 ¾) & March 2 ¼ cents higher ($9.15 ¾)
Sept Soybean Meal closed $1.1 lower ($289.1), Dec $0.5 lower ($297.0) & March $0.1 higher ($299.6)
Sept Soybean Oil closed 25 pts higher ($31.66), Dec 28 pts higher ($31.95) & March 24 pts higher ($32.17)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.150 M T. vs. 500-700 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Ratings – 69% GE (-3%) vs. 70% expected vs. 55% year ago – Setting Pods – 92% vs. 87% 5-year average – Dropping Leaves – 4% vs. 4% 5-year average
Good demand (weekly export inspections noticeably above expectations) vs. beneficial moisture beginning later this week into next week gives us a two-sided trade finally finishing with modest increases. I did not view the ProFarmer national yield idea as particularly bullish – 52.5 bpa vs. the USDA at 53.3. Crop conditions are expected to decline by 2% pts. If the forecasted rains come to fruition they will be deemed as “crop making/saving”. Soybean oil continues to be the strength among the products while the meal market continues to dog it. Plants that have been under maintenance will soon be up and running. Meal demand is only so-so while bean oil demand continues to ride on the coattails of solid bio-diesel demand.
Interior Midwestern soybean markets (basis) have a mixed look similar to that of corn. The Gulf continues to be firm for soybeans. Soybean spreads, however, have soft look beginning with the September contract. 1st Notice Day is this Friday. Offers to sell cash meal don’t do a whole lot whether its for domestic usage or for export. Meal spreads ran similar to the soybean spreads.
November soybeans continue to honor the gap suspected support at the $8.999 level. I don’t think closes below that level will be taken too kindly. For the time being we’ll view the $9.20 level as resistance. Whether or not the forecasts for beneficial moisture come to fruition will dictate our near term direction. As I mentioned earlier the meal market continues to be a weight around the soybean market’s neck. As much as I would to be bullish meal it continues to under-perform. Strength in soybean oil works to keep the soybean market alive but that’s about it.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/25
Nov Soybeans: $8.98 – $9.15
Dec Soybean Meal: $294.0 – $302.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $31.35 – $32.25
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