Corn Commentary


Corn _ Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed ½ cent lower ($3.74 ¼), March unchanged ($3.85 ½) & July ½ cent higher ($3.98 ½)

The Weekly Ethanol Grind – 943 K bpd vs. 1.003 M bpd previous week – Stocks – 22.5 M bbls vs. 23.2 M bbls previous week

Weekly Corn Export Sales – Old crop (2019-20) vs. 600 K – 1.100 M T. expected – new crop (2020-21) vs. none expected

The highs we saw in the corn market today were some of the best prices we’ve seen dating back to August 20th but unfortunately follow through was lacking. The weekly ethanol data showed us a declining grind which weighed on the nearby spreads. The excessive rain forecasts for parts of the west central, western reaches along with frost talk for the Northern Plains acted as support when the market did sell off from its early highs. I do think the general lack of disappearance coupled with a not very good handle on what we have out there works to keep bulge buyers at bay. One has to remember that SA has cheaper corn vs. what the US is offering. The strength of the US Dollar doesn’t help.

The interior corn basis has a mixed look to it today. Processors still show the best basis as they continue to stand in. The interior river basis is mixed; a couple of locations a touch easier while a couple of other locations are a touch better. The Gulf appears to be softening from the interim highs we saw late last week, earlier this week. Corn spreads ran fractionally softer on the day mostly in part to the declining ethanol grind as well as soft looking export market.

Corn price charts still look higher but not showing any character. Today marks the 6th day of higher lows and higher highs but it is coming in a grinding type motion. The quarterly stocks report, due out on Monday, has the average estimate at 2.420 billion bu. This stocks report tends to finalize the old crop carryout. A number this big, if true, suggests more than ample carryin stocks to offset what many believe is a smaller corn crop vs. what the USDA has been saying. Monday will be a very interesting day as it represents month end as well as quarter end.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/26

Dec Corn: $3.70 $3.66) – $3.80    

March Corn: $3.81 ($3.77) – $3.91

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