Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 3 cents lower ($3.59 ¾), Dec ¼ cent higher ($3.71 ¼) & March 1 ½ cents higher ($3.83 ¼)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.011 cents a gallon higher ($1.340) & Oct $0.011 cents higher ($1.356)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – -2.5 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – 858.9 K T. new crop vs. 350-800 K T. expected

Flat price corn rallies early and spends the balance of the day selling off. The early rally came from Wednesday’s positive technical look and a WH statement suggesting they are putting together a “giant package” that is ethanol related. The USDA Secretary talks about “infrastructure changes” being a possibility. Does that mean more E15 pumps? The break came from the fun and games ahead of 1st Notice Day that involved the Sept/Dec spread; it collapsed. Early the spread traded into a 7 ¾ cent carry and late it traded out to a 12 ¾ cent carry finally settling at an 11 ½ cent carry. Weekly export sales were considered decent but when one is trying to make a bull market “decent” isn’t quite enough. I’m told cheaper corn can be had from either SA or the Black Sea. The latest on weather still calls for cooler than normal temps but no calls for frost through mid-month.

Interior corn basis levels ran mixed on the day. Lincoln, NE improves by 3 cents, Decatur, IL rolled to Dec at an 8 cent spread and Savanna, IL drops its basis by 8 cents. the Gulf resumes its easing that started earlier this week. Spreads involving the Sept contract were noticeably lower suggesting deliveries. Dec loses to March forwards while March forward spreads ran mostly steady.

Given the inability of the flat price to hold on to its earlier gains on Thursday the bias now is for more consolidation vs. short covering. I would be surprised to see any sharp moves tomorrow given we are looking at a 3-day weekend. Earlier in the week I thought we might see some short covering going into the weekend – I think we saw that Wednesday and today.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/30

Dec Corn: $3.68 – $3.75    

March Corn: $3.80 – $3.87

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