Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.46), Dec 2 ½ cents lower ($3.58 ½) & March 2 ½ cents lower ($3.71 ¾)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.033 cents a gallon lower ($1.291) & Oct $0.002 cents lower ($1.317)

Additional corn deliveries continue to circulate against the September corn contract. No frost/freeze in the Corn Belt is being forecasted into mid-month. Demand remains less than desirable. These three items accounted for today’s losses. Going forward I’m starting to see some private estimates as to yield. The most recent ones are only suggesting a decrease of 2.0 bpa; nothing close to the low numbers we saw from ProFarmer. It is still my opinion that the wild card will be harvested acres but given the lateness of the crop we won’t have a good handle on that until minimally mid-October if not later.

First and foremost – cash corn movement/new sales are non-existent. The interior corn basis has taken on a mixed look. Where corn is needed basis levels are a bit better. Where corn is not needed basis levels are steady if not a shade easier. Processors still show the best bids out there. The Gulf appears steady but with not much going on. The Delta harvest is taking care of the Gulf needs which don’t appear to be much. Spreads were softer looking led by the deliveries against the Sept contract. The 2020/21 crop year gets a bit of a boost from the idea that Argentina will noticeably cut back on its corn acres.

New contract lows, new contract low closes are never very appealing. My latest downside target for Dec corn is $3.51-$3.52. This is a result of the most recent attempt to rally followed by failure. Without a weather threat (frost/freeze) or announcement that would boost demand I have to think the aforementioned targets remain in play.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/05

Dec Corn: $3.55 – $3.63    

March Corn: $3.68 – $3.76

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