Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed ½ cent higher ($3.46 ½), Dec ¼ cent higher ($3.58 ¾) & March unchanged ($3.71 ¾)

Sept Chgo Ethanol expired unchanged ($1.291) & Oct closed $0.006 cents a gallon higher ($1.323)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.013 million bpd vs. 1.038 million week ago – Stocks – 23.8 million bbls vs. 23.0 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected

Flat price corn gets caught between sagging soybean prices and firm wheat prices. The end result was unchanged to fractional increases. New news was slight. Weather forecasts continue to suggest no frost/freeze anytime soon. Demand for US corn remains less than desirable. Private yield projections continue to come in higher vs. what was being thought just a few weeks ago. Whatever cuts we see to production could easily be offset by increases to the carryin as it appears this year’s exports will fall short of USDA projections.

Not a lot of changes are being seen in the advertised corn basis levels. If anything they are running a touch easier. Since demand is no great shakes end-users are willing to let the market come to them. The Gulf continues to be no big deal as harvest in the far south is taking care of those needs. Spreads within the 2019-20 crop year rain mostly unchanged while 2019-20 gains fractionally on the 202-21 crop year.

Today’s inside day of Wednesday’s run to new contract lows does nothing to change the idea of potentially lower prices. Yesterday I outlined a downside target of $3.52-$3.51 for the December contract. I’m still good with that idea.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/06

Dec Corn: $3.54 – $3.62    

March Corn: $3.67 – $3.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.