Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.87), March 2 cents higher ($3.99) & July 2 ½ cents higher ($4.08 ¼)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.008 cents a gallon higher ($1.396) & Dec $0.018 cents higher ($1.384)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 466.5 K T. vs. 500-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 56% GE (-1%) vs. 57% expected vs. 68% year ago – Dented – 93% vs. 99% 5-year average – Mature – 58% vs. 85% 5-year average – Harvested – 15% vs. 19% expected vs. 27% 5-year average

It was a quiet but firmer trade in the corn market Sunday night, Monday; not even a 3 cent range. Support came from forecasts calling for an end to the growing season in the northwest quarter of the Corn Belt late this week. Additional support comes from the idea that the USDA will give us a lower production figure on Thursday’s October update. It is a given that carryout projections will already be reduced noticeably due to the lower than expected Quarterly Stocks report. The only offsetting issues I see is if the USDA leaves production estimates unchanged due to the lack of harvest so far and the possibility that export demand could be cut. Cheaper export origination can be found in both Brazil and Argentina as well as from Ukraine. Domestic usage could be a mixed bag; higher feeding rates vs. lower ethanol usage.

The interior corn basis is a mixed affair on Monday. Where corn is ready for harvest or where harvest is happening basis levels are running steady to easier. Processors still have the best basis while interior river locations do not appear to be anything special. I’m told cash corn movement remains minimal. The Gulf basis continues to grind higher form levels we saw one week ago. I don’t these higher levels are necessarily demand driven but more so from a lack of movement. Weekly export inspections, based on expectations, continue to disappoint. Corn spreads within the current crop year were mixed while 2019-20 gains on 2020-21.

Price charts for corn show we are downflagging from the sharp rally we saw early last week. The downflagging picture suggests a bullish bias going forward as these types of formations, more times than not, lead to higher prices. It says the buyers remain steadfast with their recent decisions.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/08

Dec Corn: $3.82 – $3.91    

March Corn: $3.94 – $4.03

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.