Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Estimates for October USDA Corn Production & Supply-Demand Report (Sept Estimate)

Ave. Production Estimate – 13.684 billion bu. (13.799 billion bu.) – Ave. Yield Estimate – 167.5 bpa (168.2 bpa) – Ave. Harvested Acres Estimate – 81.649 million (92.017 million)

Ave. US Corn Carryout Estimate – 1.784 billion bu. (2.190 billion bu.) – Ave. World Corn Carryout Estimate – 298.27 M T. (306.27 M T.)

Dec Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($3.94 ¼), March 1 cent lower ($4.05 ½) & July unchanged ($4.14 ½)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.054 cents a gallon higher ($1.496) & Dec $0.028 cents higher ($1.447)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price corn takes a pause in its recent rally. This understandable given the USDA report tomorrow, growing season ending temps in the northwest reaches of the Corn Belt, another low weekly ethanol grind and whatever the outcome of the higher echelon US/China trade meetings scheduled for tomorrow and Friday. The debate goes on as to what kind of impact we will have with the season ending temps forecasted for Friday into early next week

Interior cash corn (basis) runs mostly steady on the day. Selected processor locations are showing slightly better basis levels in response to the recent rally in the ethanol market. River locations appear fully steady in response the Gulf basis continuing to grind higher. Given the recent rally I’m told not all that much cash corn is moving. It is my thought the producer wants to see what the USDA has to say as to production on tomorrow’s report as well as any impact from the season ending temps in the northwest reaches of the Corn Belt. The recent improvement in corn spreads took a breather today along with the flat price.

Corn charts look strong but we are coming into some pretty decent looking technical resistance levels; the mid-low $4.00’s (Dec). The bottoming formation that was completed has a simple measurement to $4.01 ¾. The recent downflagging formation measures to $4.01 ¾. I’m told the 200 day MA also comes in at that level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/10

Dec Corn: $3.84 – $4.02 (?)    

March Corn: $3.95 – $4.13 (?)

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