Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 14 cents lower ($3.80 ¼), March 14 cents lower ($3.91 ½) & July 12 ¼ cents lower ($4.02 ¼)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.025 cents a gallon higher ($1.471) & Dec $0.025 cents higher ($1.422)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 284.5 K T. old crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Highlights of the USDA Corn Production & Supply-Demand Report – Production unchanged, Yield up 0.2 bpa, Harvested acres decline 202 K – Carryin declines 331 M bu., Domestic usage increases 60 M bu., Exports decline by 150 M bu., Carryout declines by 261 M bu., World carryout declines by 3.72 M T.

Long story short is that the USDA production data came in higher than expected, usage data lower than expected and carryout higher than expected. Many in the trade are expressing their disbelief with this data but this is what we’ll have to deal with for the next few weeks. I think as we get more harvesting done we’ll be able to concur with this data or deny it.

The interior corn basis if not steady is higher. Producer movement remains not much. Whether or not today’s bearishly construed USDA report prompts some movement remains to be seen. The Gulf is mostly steady with it recent easiness. Corn spreads ran steady upfront while easing as time went on. The year to year spreads took a noticeable hit; the July20/Dec20 spread lost 8 ½ cents.

Daily momentum indicators turned down after today’s price activity. The big question now for the “wannabe” bulls are whether or not the mid-low $3.70’s hold as this level is perceived as the neckline of the recently proposed bottom. Until more is known about this year’s crop the low $4.00 level will be deemed resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/11

Dec Corn: $3.76 – $3.85    

March Corn: $3.87 – $3.96  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.