Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed unchanged ($3.97 ¾), March ¼ cent lower ($4.07 ½) & July ½ cent lower ($4.16)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.500) & Dec $0.001 cent higher ($1.459)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – delayed until tomorrow due to Columbus Day holiday

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – delayed until tomorrow due to Columbus Day holiday

The day’s trading range was set during the night session; 9 ¼ cents wide from 4 ¾ cents higher to 4 ½ cents lower. If I didn’t know better I would guess the majority of the day’s volume came in the night session as the day session’s trading range was barely 4 cents wide. The early strength came from the weekend winter storm in the northern Plains as well as freezing temps getting further south and east vs. what had been forecasted. I’m sure there was some strength from the US announcing a minor trade accord with China late Friday but that was somewhat downplayed as details remain unconfirmed. Many in the trade still have disbeliefs on what the USDA had to say as to crop size on Thursday which was more than discounted on Friday.

The interior corn basis runs mixed on the day. Cedar Rapids dropped their basis by 10 cents while selected interior river locations improved their basis by 2-3 cents. the gulf continues to edge higher. Corn spreads improved fractionally within the current crop year while the old crop new crop spreads ran mostly steady.

The highs we saw early in the Sunday night trade matched many short term upside objectives. That in itself explains some of the lack of upside follow through. For prices to sustain further price increases we will have to see better demand and a clearer idea of what we may have lost to the recent winter storm in the northwestern reaches of the Corn Belt as well as the impact of the freezes elsewhere. Overall the charts still look strong but the bull needs to be fed every day. So far the rally has been led by supply worries while demand continues to lag.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/15

Dec Corn: $3.92 – $4.01    

March Corn: $4.02 – $4.11

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