Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 4 ½ cents lower ($3.93 ¼), March 3 ¼ cents lower ($4.04 ¼) & July ¾ cent lower ($4.15 ¼)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.069 cents a gallon lower ($1.431) & Dec $0.047 cents lower ($1.412)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 470.6 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 55% GE (-1%) vs. 55% expected vs. 68% year ago – Dented – 96% vs. 100% 5-year average – Mature – 73% vs. 92% 5-year average – Harvested – 22% vs. 24% expected vs. 36% 5-year average

The bull needs to fed every day and it just wasn’t there today. Weekly corn export inspections continue to disappoint. The trade is still trying to figure out what may have been lost/damaged from the weekend’s snow storm in the northern Plains as well as the hard freezes elsewhere. Hopefully tonight’s maturity ratings will shed some additional light on this issue. The administration is expected to announce a new biofuels deal later today but so far the corn market remains unimpressed as to what they may announce. I get the idea they have heard talk like this before and they won’t believe it until they see it.  A number of interior cash corn markets are noticeably backing off on advertised basis levels despite the idea the producer is focusing on harvesting soybeans.

The big basis change of the day is in Cedar Rapids, IA as they are down another 10 cents, 20 cents over the past two days. Offsetting some of this is Davenport, IA as they are up 13 cents on the day. Basis levels elsewhere are running mostly steady. The Gulf reads mostly steady as it holds on to last week’s firmness. Nearby corn spreads were under noticeable pressure as Dec loses 1 ¼ cents to March, 2 ½ cents to May and 3 ¾ cents to July. The July forward spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day.

The “daily” Dec corn chart is a bit difficult to read given the whipsaw action last Thursday, Friday and then yesterday’s inability to follow through on the upside. If one looks at a short term inter-day chart the price action is suggesting a downflagging feature. If I’m reading the inter-day chart correctly it suggests some minor support at $3.92-$3.91, better down towards the $3.88-$3.86 level. For the moving average watchers the 200 day still sits around the $4.01 ½ to $4.02 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/16

Dec Corn: $3.88 – $4.01    

March Corn: $3.99 – $4.12

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