Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($3.91 ¾), March ¾ cent lower ($4.03 ½) & July ½ cent lower ($4.14 ¾)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.009 cents a gallon lower ($1.422) & Dec $0.018 cents lower ($1.394)

USDA announces 228.6 K T. of corn sold to Mexico; 137.2 K T. old crop, 91.4 K T. new crop

Despite finishing a bit easier on the day it was not a bad day for the corn market bulls. What made it not so bad is that at one time Dec corn was down 5 ¾ cents. It is my thought the best support came from the wheat market as it continues to ratchet higher. The trade is still trying to figure out crop losses/damage from last weekend’s weather event. Speculation as of this writing is suggesting 200-250 million bu. may have been lost/damaged. As far as the US/China trade deal is concerned it remains up in the air as to details. The latest from China is telling the US not to get involved with what’s going in Hong Kong as there could be repercussions. I find it interesting that the rhetoric behind the possible trade deal is that there all sorts of different commodities that China may buy but I have not seen corn mentioned. Overall demand for US corn, domestic and export, remains not too spiffy.

Interior corn basis levels trade all over the place. The Ohio river is 3 cents better, Lincoln, NE is 5 cents better, Cedar Rapids, IA is steady after breaking 20 cents in the past two days, Savanna, IL is 3 cents better and Davenport, IA is 3 cents easier. The gulf basis for corn continues to grind higher. Corn spreads still show Dec losing while the March forward spreads ran fractionally mixed. Producer selling remains rather light as I’m the producer’s focus is all about harvesting his soybeans.

The retracement from the Sunday high continues. Suspected support, $3.88 – $3.86 (Dec), was tested today and so far it is holding. Until something comes along that verifies crop losses and or better demand it would not surprise me to see the price action move into a consolidating type affair. Since it is my thought that the price action in wheat futures was a primary supporting issue today corn traders will look to that market for further directional ideas.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/17

Dec Corn: $3.86 – $3.98    

March Corn: $3.98 – $4.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.