March Corn closed 5 ½ cents higher ($3.78 ¼), July 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.93 ¾) & Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.02)
March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.011 cents a gallon higher ($1.329) & April $0.006 cents higher ($1.347)
CONAB – Brazil Corn Production – 26.454 M T. + 65.198 M T. = 91.652 M T. vs. 27.455 M T. + 63.734 M T. = 91.190 M T. in January vs. 94.50 M T. USDA
USDA announces 122.3 K T. of corn sold to unknown (S. Korea?)
Flat price corn rallies back up into the trading range it fell from on Friday. Brazilian corn production increases by 462 K T. but below the latest USDA estimate by 2.8 M T. The EPA is considering releasing a draft proposal that would expand sales of higher ethanol blends; this could essentially lift the ban on E15 for summertime use. The rumor mill was hard at work suggesting China is looking at the possibility of buying US corn and/or US DDG’s. The rumor mill is always hard at work whenever The US and China are sitting down at the bargaining table. It should also be remembered that until SA corn comes on line the US has a good portion of global exports; currently in competition with Ukraine. Last but not least the corn market’s inability to follow through on the recent break prompted technical buying.
Cash bids (basis) for corn increases from the processor. River bids, however, ease off due to logistical problems. The Gulf is firm from slow arrival of product due to the aforementioned logistical problems. Corn spreads have a fractionally firm tone within the current crop year. Old crop gains on the new crop. Now is the time frame for US corn exports to shine at least until SA new crop comes on line.
The technical make-up of the corn market, after today’s activity, suggests the recent trading range affair lives on. Now whether or not we try and challenge the $3.85-$3.90 resistance remains to be seen. Closes over last Friday’s high, $3.81 ¾ (March), would strongly suggest that challenge. Closes below Monday’s low, $3.71 ¾ (March), would suggest a bona fide failure. My approach for the time being is to fade inter-day extremes while leaving longer term attitudes at the door.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/13
Mch Corn: $3.75 – $3.81 ½ July Corn: $3.90 ½ – $3.97
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