Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.84), March 3 cents lower ($3.94 ½) & July 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.07 ½)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.016 cents a gallon lower ($1.457) & Dec $0.018 cents higher ($1.426)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 380.6 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Conditions & Progress – 58% GE (+2%) vs. 56% expected vs. 68% year ago – Mature – 93% vs. 99% 5-year average – Harvested – 41% vs. 43% expected vs. 61% 5-year average

Lower prices on low volume were the corn trade on Monday. The lack of demand continues to more than offset the idea of a lower production number from the USDA on Thursday, November 8th. Today’s weekly export inspections are a great example of our poor export market. The US continues to lose market to SA and Ukraine. For as feeble as the trade looked on Monday I continue to see the corn market as a range bound trading affair between the mid-high $3.70’s on the downside and mid-high $3.90’s on the upside.

The interior corn basis runs unchanged vs. Friday’s values. Movement remains slight at best. I’m told the recent cancelling of deliverable receipts is due the slow movement. the cancelling of these deliverable receipts has Dec corn gaining on March. The “however” is that both Dec and March lose to the May forward contracts. The Gulf market continues to maintain its recent trend at edging higher.

For as punk looking the trade was on Monday I still believe we are a trading range affair. The shorter term intra-day and inter-day data is starting to develop a mild case of oversold. Daily data, however, is nowhere near oversold. The MO for trading range affairs is to fade short term extremes; not to chase them.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/29

Dec Corn: $3.82 – $3.88    

March Corn: $3.92 ½ – $3.98 ½

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.