Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 6 cents lower ($3.83 ¼), March 5 cents lower ($3.93 ½) & July 3 ½ cents lower ($4.06 ½)

November Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.451) & Dec $0.036 cents a gallon lower ($1.414)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 275.5 K T. vs. 400-650 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE (unch) vs. 58% expected vs. 68% year ago – Mature – 96% vs. 100% 5-year average – Harvested – 52% vs. 54% expected vs. 75% 5-year average

Monday brings us feeble looking corn export inspections; currently running behind last year’s pace by 6.2 M T. Adding to today’s poor looking corn trade is  the idea that corn producers will make some decent inroads with harvesting due to clear weather conditions this week. On Friday we had two prominent trading firms suggest the nation’s corn yield is improving not declining from previous USDA estimates. If we add all of the aforementioned together it would suggest corn prices will test the low side of the suggested trading range prior to the high side. The $64 K question; “Will the USDA production, supply-demand update on Friday be a game changer?” As of this writing my guess is no; corn prices will be going nowhere fast.

Interior cash corn markets have taken on a mixed look for Monday. Decatur, IL is 4 cents better while Cedar Rapids, IA is 7 cents lower. River locations run slightly better to noticeably easier; Seneca, IL and Savanna, IL are each 1 cent better while Davenport, IA is 3 cents lower. Linden, IN is 5 cents better and Council Bluffs 3 cents lower. The Gulf holds on to recent strength. Corn spreads were clearly under the gun from the idea of advancing harvest as well as the ongoing poor demand.

The funds are a noticeable short. The price action leaves a lot to be desired for those that are thinking the USDA is going to give us a friendly report. As I mentioned earlier it looks like we’ll see a test of the low side of the suggested trading range ideas, mid-high $3.70’s to the mid-high $3.90’s (Dec), before a test of the high side.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/05

Dec Corn: $3.80 – $3.88 ½     

March Corn: $3.90 – $3.98

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.