Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 3 ½ cents lower ($3.75 ¼), March 4 cents lower ($3.83 ¾) & July 3 cents lower ($3.97 ¾)

December Chgo Ethanol closed 0.032 cents a gallon higher ($1.405) & Jan $0.021 cents higher ($1.393)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 488.0 K T. old crop vs. 300-650 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly corn export sales continue to be of the non-market making variety. It seems some “normal’ US corn customers (S. Korea in particular) are going elsewhere for their corn. The big boost in sorghum sales (China) may be good for sorghum but not for corn. I don’t know what the USDA will say tomorrow as to their production & supply-demand updates but the recent positioning of the spec money has been to be short. After today’s activity (the lowest prices since late September) I have to think they don’t believe the USDA will cut production and carryout projections as much as trader estimates suggest.

Interior cash corn prices (basis) have taken on a mixed look. The Ohio River is steady but firm, Decatur, IL is 6 cents lower, Cedar Rapids is 4 cents lower, Seneca, IL is 3 cents better, Savanna, IL is 2 cents lower and Davenport, IA is 5 cents better. The Gulf continues to grind higher. The Dec/March spread is grinding tighter while March forward spreads soften. Movement continues to be sporadic at best.

The idea that corn prices are a trading range affair get a severe test as prices are now down at the neckline of the proposed bottom that was completed in late September. Prices are now showing just a modest degree of oversold. Weekly charts are on the verge of rolling over. If they do indeed follow through the next stop on the downside will be $3.58 to $3.55. Given the recent three week sideways to easier slide it makes one think the risk is now to the upside.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/08

Dec Corn: $3.72 ($3.64) – $3.86 ($3.92)     

March Corn: $3.80 ($3.72) – $3.94 ($4.00)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.