Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.70 ½), March 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.80 ¾) & July 3 ¼ cents higher ($3.92)

December Chgo Ethanol closed 0.081 cents a gallon higher ($1.516) & Jan $0.037 cents higher ($1.447)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 604.5 K T. vs. 550-750 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Progress – Harvested – 84% vs. 85% expected vs. 95% 5-year average

USDA announced corn sales from last week – 132.0 K T. & 191.0 K T. sold to Unknown should read as soybeans sold to Unknown

Monday’s corn trade can be called consolidation with noted bear spreading. I did not see a lot of new news out there other than the USDA’s reversal of last week’s announced corn sales. Weekly corn export inspections can be deemed as “uninspiring”. The trade would like to think the US export market can improve as we move into December and January due to Brazil’s exportable supply of corn running short. Domestic corn prices in Brazil have increased dramatically due to feed demand for their beef. Brazil has become a big time exporter of beef to China. Last Friday the idea came out that could have Brazil importing US corn in an effort to offset their rising domestic prices.

With the exception of the Ohio River (down 4 cents) all other interior corn basis locations run steady to higher on Monday. Processors are showing the best bids; I believe this is in response to an improving ethanol market. Interior river locations run steady to higher. The Gulf basis is mostly steady. Corn spreads were noticeably softer on the day. It is my thought this is residue from Friday’s option expiration as well as 1st Notice Day for later this week. It will be interesting to see how deliveries pan out given some of the high basis levels I’m seeing along the Illinois River system.

Flat price corn consolidates at its recent lower end. Thoughts of better business down the road coupled with a big net short spec has the trade thinking twice about selling this market in the hole. It is my thought that if you want to see lower corn prices the market may have to rally first given the amount of spec shorts already in the market.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/26

March Corn: $3.75 – $3.85     

July Corn: $3.86 – $3.96

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.