Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 3 cents lower ($3.67 ½), March 2 ½ cents lower ($3.78 ¼) & July 2 ½ cents lower ($3.89 ½)

December Chgo Ethanol closed 0.016 cents a gallon lower ($1.500) & Jan $0.028 cents lower ($1.419)

The corn trade on Tuesday was all about liquidation ahead of 1st Notice Day. I don’t think we’ll see that many corn deliveries given where basis levels are along the Illinois River but rarely does it pay to play the delivery game. I still hear of a fair amount of talk about how US corn exports will start to improve as we move through December into January but so far it’s just talk. Monday’s crop progress (harvest) suggests there is still anywhere from 1.3 to 1.8 billion bu. still in the fields. This is being shrugged for the time being given our current rate of poor export demand. I am hearing the Brazilian producer is looking at some great prices for his corn given their feed demand and their export demand. This would suggest it could be sooner vs. later that he exhausts his old crop corn. Once that is done US origin should come back into the limelight.

Interior corn basis continue to be strong. The Gulf is holding its own despite the poor rate of exports. Country movement continues to be minimal but the need for cash ($$$) is being supplied supplanted by payments from the US government.  Spreads continue to be under pressure from 1st Notice Day liquidation. All those that were long futures playing the short supply game are now coughing up those positions.

Price charts are still favoring the recent consolidation pattern at its recent low end. With tomorrow being the last day ahead of 1st Notice Day it is my idea flat price corn will trade to the downside out of the recent trading range but then snap back if deliveries are what I think they should be; minimal at best.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/27

March Corn: $3.74 – $3.82     

July Corn: $3.85 – $3.93

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