Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.73 ½), March ¾ cent higher ($3.82) & July unchanged ($3.90 ¼)

December Chgo Ethanol closed 0.001 cents a gallon lower ($1.469) & Jan $0.003 cents lower ($1.409)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 428.8 K T. vs. 500-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Harvest Progress – 89% vs. 89% expected vs. 98% 5-year average

Deliveries against the December corn contract have yet to happen. Weekly export inspections were puny at best. The lack of deliveries supported the nearby Dec/March spread but did not offer that much support to the flat price. Brazil and Ukraine are still the world leaders in corn exports. Brazil’s exportable supply is expected to wane in the coming weeks and that has some thinking the US export share will improve as we move into the New Year. Weekly export sales from last week did show some improvement but more is needed if we are to meet the latest USDA export estimates.

The interior corn basis continues to show a firm bias but it should be noted that the recent rates of increase are slowing. The Gulf too is firm but increases have slowed. Due to the lack of deliveries the Dec/March spread is strong but so are the deferred spreads although to a lesser extent. For what it is worth I can’t imagine going through the entire delivery period without seeing some deliveries. If and when that happens all corn spreads will take a hit.

Flat price corn charts are trying to suggest the tide (the lower trend) has turned for the time being. To keep this suggested turn of events alive better business, especially export, is needed.  A close above $3.87 (March) will suggest a test of the mid-low $3.90’s. For the time being $3.77-$3.76 should be deemed as support.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/03

March Corn: $3.77 – $3.87     

July Corn: $3.85 – $3.95

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