Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.68 ¾), March 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.78 ½) & July 2 ½ cents lower ($3.89 ¼)

December Chgo Ethanol expired unchanged ($1.469) & Jan closed $0.014 cents a gallon lower ($1.371)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.060 million bpd vs. 1.059 million one week ago – Stocks – 20.6 million bbls vs. 20.3 million bbls one week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The lack of US corn exports more than offsets another strong week of grinding for ethanol. We also saw the first batch of deliveries (129) against the December corn contract. All of this weighed on corn prices as did inter-market spreading (buying soybeans/selling corn & buying wheat/selling corn).  The closet bulls still talk about better prospects for US export further down the road once Brazil has exhausted its export able supply; it just hasn’t happened yet.

The interior corn basis still shows a firm tone but increases have slowed. The best basis is from the eastern Midwest processors. The gulf looks like it has developed a steady to easier tone for the short term. Corn spreads ran fractionally easier within the current crop year while old crop was a noticeable loser to the 2020/21 crop year.

As we wait for better US corn exports the thought is the corn market goes into a consolidation phase just above last week’s lows. Without better business I’m not sure we have enough rationale to further any new round of short covering.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/05

March Corn: $3.75 – $3.82     

July Corn: $3.86 – $3.93

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.