Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed ¾ cent lower ($3.65 ½), March 1 cent lower ($3.75 ¾) & July ¾ cent lower ($3.86)

January Chgo Ethanol closed $0.012 cents a gallon lower ($1.363) & Feb $0.012 cents lower ($1.383)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 481.0 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

Corn Harvest Progress – 92% vs. 94% expected vs. 100% 5-year average

Weekly corn export inspections continue to be no big deal. As much as the trade would like to think the US will be seeing better corn export business as we move forward due to declining corn exports out of SA it has yet to appear. For what it is worth Ukraine has a bundle of exportable corn for the current marketing season. Tomorrow, December 10th, the USDA will update Supply-Demand. This is NOT a production update as that won’t take place until January. The average trade guess for the US corn carryout is 1.919 billion bu., an increase of 9 million bu. from November. My guess is the higher carry out figure is due to either a minor decline in exports and or a minor decline in the ethanol grind. Personally, I’m looking for an unchanged number I feel the ethanol grind is rebounding from its slow start and I think its too early to start cutting exports as we have only finished the first quarter of the marketing year.

The interior cash corn market continues to show a firm undertone with only one exception; Davenport, IA is down 7 cents from Friday’s posting. The midday posting at the Gulf suggests last week’s minor slide is now stabilizing as bids are 2 cents higher and offers unchanged. Corn spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day; March gains a ¼ cent on May while losing ¼ cent to July. Old crop gains fractionally on the new crop.

March corn continues to honor the suspected support ranging from $3.75 down to $3.70 but that’s about it. March needs to get above the mid-$3.80’s to offer any idea that an interim low is in place.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/10

March Corn: $3.73 ($3.70) – $3.85

July Corn: $3.83 ($3.80) – $3.95

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.