Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec corn closed 5 ½ cents lower ($3.57 ¾), March 5 ¾ cents lower ($3.71 ¼) & July 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.83 ¾)

January Chgo ethanol closed $0.016 cents a gallon lower ($1.322), Feb $0.016 cents lower ($1.342)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.072 million bpd vs. 1.060 million week ago – Stocks – 21.8 million bbls vs. 20.6 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Today’s performance is suggesting the trade is getting tired of waiting for the “improved US corn exports” that have been talked about for the past couple of weeks. Other than the rest of CBOT Ag complex being lower I did not see any one single news item to prompt today’s dismal performance. Any talk of January’s USDA report featuring lower harvested acres, lower yield was nowhere to be heard. Yesterday’s USDA report hiking Chinese corn production squelches any talk that China may buy US corn if we eventually get a trade deal.

The interior corn basis, especially from the processor, continues to firm. Most but not all interior river locations are firm as well. The Gulf does some minor easing from recent attempts to firm. Corn spreads got hit hard today as March loses 1 ½ cents to July. The old crop/new crop corn spreads continue to be under pressure as well.

My idea of March corn honoring the suspected support level of $3.75 to $3.70 is getting a severe test after today’s performance. Today’s close in March corn is the lowest dating back to September 9th. For what it is worth the contract low in March corn is $3.65 ¾ and the contract low close is $3.67 ¼. New crop corn, Dec, pumps out a new contract low and a new contract low close. Overall none of today’s activity in the corn market is giving anyone trying to be friendly any confidence.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 12th

March Corn: $3.69 ½ – $3.76

July Corn: $3.82 – $3.88 ½

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.