Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.81 ¾), July 1 ½ cents lower ($3.90 ¾) & Dec ½ cent lower ($3.93 ½)

March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.002 cents per gallon lower ($1.338), April $0.005 cents higher ($1.365)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 769.3 K T. vs. 500-800 K T. expected

Results of Reuters Poll for February 11th USDA Supply Demand – US corn carryout 1.864 billion bu. vs. 1.892 in January – World corn carryout 297.19 M T. vs. 297.81 in January – Brazilian corn production 100.85 M T. vs. 101.00 in January – Argentine corn production 49.97 M T. vs. 50.00 in January

Given the price action dating back to mid-December all I can say is the US corn market is no better-no worse than a trading range affair. If one believes the traders’ poll for tomorrow’s USDA Supply-Demand the trading range idea should live on. In other words this report should say the US remains well supplied as does the World. Over the weekend it was reported that “most” of the Chinese feed processors went back to work this week after their extended Lunar New Year holiday. Transportation, I’m told, is still an issue due to restrictions from the spread of the coronavirus.

Interior corn basis levels are reading mixed to lower today – the Ohio River continues to inch higher, Decatur, IL is 3 cents lower, Seneca, IL is 2 cents higher, Davenport, IA is 2 cents lower, Linden, IN is 2 cents lower and Council Bluffs, IA down 3 cents. The midday posting for the Gulf appears to be a shade easier from Friday’s posting. Corn spreads were a bit erratic as March gains fractionally on the May but loses to July forward.

Will the USDA Supply-Demand report tomorrow be a game changer? As of this writing I think not. With that said the trading range scenario lives on if not breaking down. Thinking ahead – the USDA has said they do not have enough particulars on the Phase One trade agreement to incorporate in this report. On Feb 20-21 the USDA will have its annual outlook conference that has supply-demand details going out a number of years. Will they try to incorporate the Phase One agreement into the further out years? Normally at the outlook conference they tend to use the ideas that were formulated by the OMB back in November. Conclusive closes below $3.75 (March) will suggest a challenge of the September lows while closes above $3.85 will suggest a rally into the mid $3.90’s.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/11

March Corn – $3.76 – $3.88

July Corn – $3.85 – $3.97

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