Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($3.72 ¼), July 4 cents lower ($3.79 ½) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.82 ¼)

March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.005 cents per gallon lower ($1.307), April $0.005 cents lower ($1.332)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 912.9 K T. vs. 600-950 K T. expected

It’s called “risk-off” due to the continued spread of Covid-19 (aka the coronavirus). The fear is that if the virus continues to spread it will hit the global economy/global trade. Despite finishing lower the corn market put in the least bearish performance within the Ag sector due to weekly export inspections being some of the best of season. I’m told that the 2nd season corn crop in Brazil is getting planted in a very timely manner. The Argentine corn crop is looking good and it was just last week that new crop corn export licenses were being issued.

The interior corn basis reads steady to higher. The Gulf export market stands in with no real new changes being seen. Spreads within the old crop eased slightly with the spec selling. Old crop loses to the new crop. 1st Notice day against the March contract comes up on Friday. As of this writing there are only 35 contracts registered for delivery. Granted this can change as we approach Friday. If we do see any deliveries I doubt there will be any #2’s as quality corn is hard to come by.

March and May corn register new contract lows but not new contract low closes while the July contract does register new contract low closes. New crop is clearly in new contract low ground as that level was breached on Friday. Friday’s report from the USDA at their Outlook Conference calls for big acres and a big yield leading to a 2.6 billion bu. carryout. Absolutely nothing bullish with this data. Flat price may try to hem and haw a bit after today’s performance but without a “godsend” I don’t see much to look forward to.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/25

May Corn – $3.72 – $3.80 ½

July Corn – $3.85 – $3.83 ½

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