Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 3 cents lower ($3.27 ¾), July 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.33 ½) & Dec cents 2 ½ cents lower ($3.48 ¼)

April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.005 cents a gallon higher ($0.869), May $0.001 lower ($0.906)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.271 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.200 M T. expected

Solid looking export inspections were offset by the fear of lost disappearance from the ethanol sector. We have to remember that last month the USDA calculated that corn usage for ethanol sector would be 38% of total usage vs. exports accounting for only 12% of total usage. I would think the feed sector should see some increased usage due to the possibility of animals getting backed up due to virus related processing concerns. The end result of all of this had nearby corn closing at its lowest level dating back to Aug/Sept of 2016. The bottom line is that until corn usage for ethanol picks up the corn market will stay depressed.

Not much change is being seen with the interior corn basis. Processors show the weakest bids and they are not getting any better. River bids do some minor flip-flopping between locations. The gulf looks steady with Friday’s posting. Corn spreads within the current crop year ran fractionally mixed while old crop loses to the new crop.

Is old crop corn oversold yet? Not unless you think the 14-day RSI at 24 is. I can’t help but notice that as the price grinds lower so does the open interest. When the outside is not interested in trading a particular market its price will tend to grind lower until it gets low enough to spark some interest. So far I don’t think we are there yet in the corn market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/07

July Corn – $3.30 – $3.37

Dec Corn – $3.45 – $3.54 

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